PRECIOUS METALS
· Gold & Silver after Greek leaders postponed yesterday's meeting, markets have grown anxious that agreement and the resolve to adopt the required austerity measures is lacking. The EU has suggested a deal should be reached by 15 February to ensure that the necessary arrangements are made before Greece makes a critical bond payment on 20 March. Eventually these concerns should see renewed interest in precious metals. However, any upside could be dampened if the dollar should push higher owing to the same concerns.
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Gold MCX Apr Support @ 2802027678-27486 Resistance @ 28554-28746-28938
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Silver MCX Mar Support @ 56471-55546-55082 Resistance @ 57860-58324-58789
· Gold COMEX Support @ $1705-1695 Resistance @ $1732-1749
· Silver COMEX Support @ $32.89-32.52 Resistance @ $33.75-34.23
BASE METALS
· A modest IMF downgrade to China's growth outlook and concerns over the pace of global industrial output from the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology weighed on much of the base metals complex during overnight trade. The metals have continued to come under pressure ahead of US trade with Greece again the main focus of the markets. Until there is clarity regarding the debt situation, the metals are likely to remain nervous, something underscored by the relatively light turnover seen this morning.
· Copper cancelled warrant activity in the US continues to be a feature of the market. Assuming some metal is destined to cover shorts from the temporarily shuttered Pasar smelter in the Philippines, and assuming some is for LME-COMEX arbitrage related activity, the key will be how much metal is actually exported. Delivering into Asia doesn't make any sense financially at the moment but could be part of a longer game. That said however, with some newswire reports suggesting Chinese smelters are looking to export metal owing to weak domestic demand, it could be a very long game indeed and remains unlikely in our view. The other potential, or rather additional, reason behind the cancellations could be that given the queue situation at many LME warehouses, the metal moves location so as to become more readily accessible in the future, but doesn't leave the US. This has the side-effect of flattering LME stocks, while at the same time helping firm up regional premiums.
· Price-wise, copper has fallen below $8,400 ahead of US trade, with the metal dragging lead, nickel and zinc down with it. Aluminum has managed to tread water, with the recent capacity closure announcements perhaps insulating the metal from the more bearish elements of the market.
· Copper MCX Feb Support @ 416-411-408 Resistance @ 423-426-429
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Nickel MCX Feb Support @ 1052-1039-1030 Resistance @ 1075-1084-1094
· Lead MCX Feb Support @ 105.90-104.85-104 Resistance @ 107.75-108.55-109.35
